Fred Global Risk Index

Methodology

The Fred Global Risk Index is a composite score from 0 (minimal risk) to 100 (maximum risk), combining five independent signals updated daily:

• Market Stress (25 pts): Crypto Fear & Greed Index, inverted as a risk measure. Low F&G = high stress.
• Economic Health (25 pts): Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y spread) and unemployment rate trend.
• Credit Stress (15 pts): High-yield corporate bond spread vs historical baseline.
• Crypto Volatility (15 pts): Average absolute z-score across 15 crypto assets over 30 days.
• Prediction Uncertainty (20 pts): How close prediction market prices cluster to 50% — higher clustering = more uncertainty.

Data sources: FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), Binance, Kraken, Bybit, OKX, Coinbase, Kalshi, Polymarket, Fear & Greed Index.