ELO-powered predictions, value bet detection, and data-driven match analysis. Fred's model: 68% accuracy on NBA (backtested, 1,195 games).
4–6 pages per matchup: ELO ratings, model win probability, odds comparison from 5 bookmakers, value bet detection, form analysis, head-to-head history.
Buy Report10–12 pages: power rankings (ELO-based), week’s biggest games, upsets, model accuracy accountability, upcoming value bets for next week.
Buy Report4–6 pages: Premier League, La Liga, Champions League, Serie A, Bundesliga. ELO prediction, form, odds comparison, value bets.
Buy ReportAll NBA Game Day Reports + All Football Match Reports + Weekly Roundups + Value Bet Alerts via email. Unlimited access.
Dynamic ELO ratings for every team, updated after each game. K-factor adjusts for margin of victory and home court advantage. The ELO delta between teams is the primary predictive signal.
Combines ELO difference, home advantage, recent form (last 5), head-to-head history, rest days, and travel fatigue into a logistic regression model. Backtested on full season data.
Compares Fred's model probability to bookmaker implied probabilities (Pinnacle, FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM). Only flags bets with >5% edge and >60% confidence.
Every prediction is tracked. Weekly roundups include model accuracy for the week. Full historical track record available. No hidden failures.